How It Works
A short flow from raw wallet activity to a calibrated probability signal.
We ingest wallet-level trade flow from active prediction markets.
We group wallets into cohorts by category, horizon, and historical calibration.
We infer cohort belief from trading sequences and net flow, not just last price.
We publish SmartCrowd Prob next to Market Prob with a short explanation.
Market implies 62%, SmartCrowd says 53% because calibrated cohorts are net selling YES.
Confidence is higher when skilled cohorts agree and flow looks organic, and lower when activity looks thin, erratic, or potentially coordinated; research-only, not financial advice.
Living Influence Graph
Interactive Probability DNA and 3D lattice preview using the current graph implementation.
Product Preview
Get market insights from our SmartCrowd signals.
Market Screener
| Market | Precognition | Confidence | Divergence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Bowl winner decided by OT? | 62% | 53% | High | 9.0% |
| Fed cuts rates before June? | 41% | 49% | Medium | 8.0% |
| Major ETF inflow next week? | 57% | 61% | High | 4.0% |
| Will CPI print under 2.8%? | 36% | 31% | Medium | 5.0% |
| L2 token launches by Q3? | 68% | 60% | Low | 8.0% |
Market Page
- Top sports cohort reducing YES exposure
- Lead wallets lagging price momentum
- Uncertainty tight in 3-day horizon
Re-accumulation by high-skill wallets + cross-community buy confirmation.
Build your edge on signal quality.
Not financial advice. Research-only signal.